Will a Roblox sponsored ad campaign pay back in 7 days? Models D1/D7 retention decay and ARPDAU.
A Roblox ad campaign breaks even within 7 days when 7-day creator LTV (Active Days × ARPDAU × 70% creator share) is greater than or equal to your Cost Per Acquisition (CPI in Robux). With 30% D1 and 8% D7 retention (~1.85 active days in week 1), you need ~7.8 R$ gross ARPDAU to pay back a 10 R$ CPI at a 70% creator share.
Equivalent to $100 USD · R$ 26,316 (at 263 R$ per Ad Credit)
Total sessions started within 1h of ad click.
Ads Manager counts sessions; Creator Hub counts unique users.
From Creator Hub → Analytics → Acquisition → Sponsored ads → 30D revenue per user.
Each unique player costs $0.048 (CPP per session: $0.04). Your place earns $0.048 net (R$ 12.6) per player over 30 days. Every $1.00 spent returns $1.
| CPP Scenario | Plays | 30D Return | ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01 (RDC Floor) | 10,000 | $399 | 399% |
| $0.03 (Low Bid) | 3,333 | $133 | 133% |
| $0.08 (Mid Earnings) | 1,250 | $50 | 50% |
| $0.25 (High Competitive) | 400 | $16 | 16% |
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Facts verified: Primary Roblox Docs ↗Roblox Facts →
We fit a power-law retention curve R(t) = D1 × t^b between Day 1 and Day 7, sum the active probability from Day 0 (install day = 1.0) through Day 6, and multiply by daily spend (ARPDAU) and your 70% creator share.
Usually only small test budgets to measure onboarding. Fixing first-5-minute tutorial drop-offs and UI shop conversion increases LTV across every future player before you scale ad spend.
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